Raphaël Trouvé, Patrick J. Baker, Mark J. Ducey, Andrew P. Robinson, Craig R. Nitschke et al., Nature Communications, 21 August 2025
New research reveals how rising temperatures are threatening the structure and carbon storage capacity of Australia’s iconic mountain ash forests. Analysing long-term forestry data from southeastern Victoria, the authors found that a 1 °C rise in average temperature corresponds to a 9 % drop in tree density and a 25 % rise in mortality. By 2080, with a projected 3 °C increase, tree numbers and carbon stocks could fall by around a quarter. This is equivalent to losing 240,000 hectares of mature forest and 108 million tonnes of carbon. Trees that died were usually much smaller than those that survived, and this didn’t change across different climate conditions. The researchers say these insights can help guide smarter, more flexible ways of managing forests, such as thinning, so they stay healthy, store carbon, support wildlife and protect water.
This research adds to a growing body of evidence showing we cannot afford to sit back and do nothing. Forests need active, adaptive care. At the Foundation, we believe that means looking to both First Nations knowledge and the best available science – including world-leading research like this from the University of Melbourne.
Read the research here.
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